The Dutch go to the polls on September 12.
Recent opinion polls suggest the ruling right-of-center VVD (you know…the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy) will be unable to form a right-of-center majority government. So….down the road of extended negotiations and horse trading we will probably go.
The Netherlands has a population of 16,700,000 (give or take a few pairs of clogs) yet they manage to field 12 political parties. Clearly they take their politics seriously.
What if the left-wing, euro-skeptic SP (Socialist Party) wins enough votes to be the second-biggest party? And then teams up with the PVV (Party for Freedom). We’re not saying that would ever happen because they are political poles apart but they are intellectually aligned when it comes to their views on EU integration. And it’s a strange world in which we live.
The Dutch as a whole are increasingly vocal in their anti-bailout rhetoric and it’s not without a realistic possibility that the SP will make a very good showing. If this happens, it would make it more difficult for any new Dutch coalition to secure sufficient parliamentary support for continued / additional financial support for their profligate neighbors to the south.
In any case, expect more uncertainty as we get closer to the date…just as we did with Greece.
Unlike Greece, however, the Netherlands does count. While their GDP may be only 3 times larger than that of the Greeks, they are an important cog in the wheel of the northern alliance because they are seen as being prudent and practical…even if some of them like to inhale from time to time.
And, along with Germany, Finland and Luxembourg, they still hold the coveted AAA rating, although Moodys have hinted that it might be in jeopardy. Presumably the Dutch would not be happy losing that rating, especially as they would see it being mostly Greece’s fault.
Losing Dutch support would be a big chink in Angela’s armor…that’s Angela Merkel, of course. Not Angela Landsbury…the actor…although I’m sure that Angela, the former, would like to swap places with Angela, the latter from time to time.
Vocal Dutch may inspire vocal Germans.
Angela needs docile not vocal. Especially as “vocal” is not that many vowels and consonants away from “volatile”. Angela definitely does not need volatile!
So…the coming Dutch elections could be far more important than most pundits predict.
Continuing our sweep through a European September, we’ll saunter on over to Portugal next.
