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Tag Archive for gold

The case for #silver over #gold

The case for silver is compelling.  There is simply not enough to go around.  The same can be said for gold but in reality, gold is something…to quote famous resource financier, Rick Rule…that goes from one hole to another…from a hole in the ground (mine) to a hole in the wall (vault).  It is bullion currency, pure and simple.  Sure it has marvelous conductive features but do you really want to lay gold wire when you can lay copper.  Of course you will find some gold use in medicine and electronics but for the most part people view it as a store of wealth, whether ornamental as in jewelry or utility as in coins or simply bullion bars.  So that’s why most of the gold ever mined is still around…and according to who you believe, would fill between 2-3 Olympic size swimming pools.

Silver on the other hand, is both currency and commodity.  Sure….it’s use in photography has diminished almost completely since the advent of digital camera technology but it’s usage in everyday “necessities” such as Iphones and tablets has also increased exponentially.  It is also used very much in medicine and is a necessity in solar.  So a lot of the silver being produced gets consumed.

More importantly to the silver bulls, it is viewed as the poor man’s gold.  Simply speaking, when there is the inevitable mad rush for gold and it spikes to significantly higher numbers than today, many fine folk will simply not be able to afford it.  But they will be able to afford silver and they will buy it like crazy as their personal inflation fighter.

The gold / silver ratio is simply the number of silver ounces it would take to buy an ounce of silver.  Currently it is around 55:1 which means it would cost you 55 oz or silver to buy a single oz of gold.  Over the past 10 years this ratio has gone as high as 83 and as low as  31 but historically, during a mania phase in bullion, it can compress as low as 15.  So if gold has reached 5000 / oz and the gold / silver ratio is 15, silver is trading at 333 / oz. …over a 1000% increase from today’s price….verses gold’s increase of roughly 300%.  So that may help to explain why the silver bulls are so bullish.

But if the mania never comes…because maybe this time it really is different…and the central bankers are indeed God personified…then at least we know that the shiny silver stuff will increasingly be used elsewhere…either to help you make a phone call or to maybe heat your house…or heal your body.   So maybe silver doesn’t reach 300 but I suspect that it won’t hit 3 either.

Are Warren, George and John telling us something?

An SEC filing on Tuesday detailing Berkshire’s portfolio at the close of the second quarter revealed significant cuts to holdings in Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble and Kraft Foods, all stalwarts of Warren Buffett’s portfolio.

Maybe that’s got something to do with the changing of the management guard at Berkshire as Warren eases out…after all, he’s no spring chicken anymore (was he ever?). But the reductions were big. J&J, P&G and Kraft were three of 14 equity positions worth more than a billion dollars at the end of 2011.

So, maybe it’s just trimming or maybe it’s more. We love companies like JNJ, PG and KFT but not at these prices. They are way too rich for our valuation metrics at Craven Capital. We prefer JNJ and PG under $60 and KFT way under $40 but we see them as bulwark companies that can and will stand the test of turbulent times.

Why is Warren taking profits? What is he going to do with that money? Maybe he’s raising cash to buy another railroad (great inflation hedges that they are) or cash to rescue Goldman Sachs (again).

Or maybe the 2nd richest man in America is thinking about buying that ultimate inflation hedge…the same thing he allegedly called a barbarous relic some years ago. After all, that’s what the 7th richest man in America, Golden George Soros is doing.

In a recent SEC filing for the quarter ending June 30, 2012, it was reported that Soros had sold all of his equity positions in major financial stocks, including Citi, JPM and Goldman Sucks (sic). All up, he dumped around $50 mill.

But what is really interesting is what he bought with that money.

Yep…Golden George is buying gold…in the form of shares of the preeminent gold ETF…GLD.

Hence, the man who broke the Bank of England is trading paper for gold. Personally, if we had that sort of money we’d buy bullion but that’s our opinion. It’s his money.

In the meantime, another very smart fellow, the 17th richest man in America, John Paulson has been loading up on more gold himself, at the expense of a significant amount of paper assets, mainly in tech stocks.

So what does all this mean?

When major players like Buffet and Soros, with their direct ties to the White House, Wall Street, and the banking system generally start dumping stocks (and stashing gold in the case of Soros and Paulson), it may suggest a very serious market move is set to happen.

Despite what they say to the contrary, if there’s anyone with an inside track of where things are headed next it’s Warren and George. And John is no slouch either.

For his part, Soros even wrote about it. In his book The Crash of 2008 and What It Means, he referred to the current economic and political model the “end of an era”. He even intimated that the financial and economic situation across the world is so serious that Europe could soon descend into chaos and conflict and that the world is entering “one of the most dangerous periods in modern history”. Worse still, he foresees violent riots in America and a brutal clamp-down by the government that will dramatically curtail civil liberties. You mean…even more than we’ve seen already.

Maybe that’s why the folks at Homeland Security felt a need to order 400,000 rounds of ammunition. Could we see shoot outs when checking in?

Soros publicly gave the governments a roadmap to follow but maybe he believes that Gentle Ben, Tiny Tim and Super Mario are off course, so he’s getting out of those companies which are most at risk in another 2008-type meltdown, this time with sovereign nations also being squeezed like over-ripe tomatoes in a Safeway store.

So George and John…and maybe Warren…are moving from paper to something a bit more solid. When three of the world’s richest men are doing similar things, it pays to pay attention.

Got gold?